20th Anniversary-Pacific Policy Statements
A Vision for the Future of the Pacific Rim
In celebrating the 20 years of training future leaders for the Pacific Rim community, we have set up electronic discussion forums on topics important for the future of the Pacific Rim. We opened the forum to our alumni, faculty members, current students, and community supporters for two months. Here are the views that have emerged from these discussions.
There are nine issues: digital divide, terrorism, security in north East-Asia region, security policy of Japan, global role of China, intellectual property rights, corporate social responsibility, fragility of financial system, and U.S. immigration policy. The list is not comprehensive, but it covers many important topics in the near future of the Pacific Rim. The topics also reflect the eclectic but broad nature of the expertise involved in formulating this vision.
Bridging the Digital Divide
In the past 15 years there is considerable good news about bridging the digital divide. Huge variations still exist among countries and within countries, but we observe three key encouraging developments. First, communications connectivity has spread rapidly, even in many of the poorest regions and poorest countries. Wireless technology and new business plans (such as the sale of service by pre-paid phone cards and partnerships between companies and non-profits) spurred by competition helped greatly. Second, countries are integrating educational and human resource investments into the policies addressing the digital divide. Third, a cycle of innovation is emerging in many countries. Korea’s on-line gaming industry is a popular example that also illustrates how programs in English are no longer required for commercial success. Equally impressive are the innovations in mobile banking in the Philippines and some of the state programs for e-government in Mexico.
To be sure, challenges remain. Some countries (e.g., Cambodia) lag badly because of their inappropriate public policies. In many countries, the costs of communications services remain too high for many social uses. It costs Mexican schools an average of $2000 per month outside the major urban areas to have high speed connectivity. The match between conventional service and software applications and local needs and aspirations can still be tricky. Some countries, like China, may resist some global approaches because of the desire to control their own technology options. Nonetheless, the recent trend makes us cautiously optimistic about our succeeding in substantially reducing the digital divide in the next several years.
Terrorism in the Pacific Rim
In the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001, international terrorism has become the most important national security problem facing the United States. Neither evidence nor logic suggests that a strategy of deterrence, used during the Cold War, will succeed in coping with the present threat. In a region within the Pacific Rim, the campaign against terrorism in Southeast Asia has been almost totally ignored by the US press, despite the significant threat posed by Jamaat Islamyia, Abu Sayaf, and other groups.
We propose that the United States needs a new strategy to deal with the individuals and groups who have the means and motivation to attack the U.S. using non-conventional methods. Such a strategy must be founded on an adequate understanding of terrorism, its origins, means of support, and strategic logic. At least, the U.S. needs to switch from a strategy of deterrence designed to inflict punishment on the terrorists to one which makes clear that this form of violence will not be rewarded with concessions.
Security in Northeast Asia
The security situation in Northeast Asia is undergoing a major transition. Traditional flashpoints of potential conflict, such as the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, are becoming less important, as recent diplomatic and political developments provide optimism. The election of KMT leader Ma Ying-Jeou as Taiwanese President in March 2008 has certainly raised hopes that military tensions eventually will be replaced by the forging of economic ties and political negotiations aimed at finding common ground for a peace accord. More important is the security dilemmas between China, the U.S. and Japan and the rising geo-strategic value of sea lanes of communications, the maritime commons and outer space. The testing of anti-satellite capabilities by both the U.S. and China since 2007 represents the emergence of a fledging but dangerous dynamics that may develop into an arms race.
We see the region is poised for a fundamental overhaul of how its security arrangements are structured. There will be a shift from the U.S. dominated hubs-and-spokes bilateral alliance system to a more multilateral approach to security. Much will depend on the progress of the current “Six Party” talks between North Korea, the U.S. and the other four major powers over the dismantling of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, which continues to move forward at a glacial pace.
Japan’s Security Policies
Under former Prime Ministers Koizumi and Abe, Japan's security policies seemed to change greatly, despite its having Article 9 (the “no war” and armed forces only for defense clause of the Constitution) with greater emphasis on playing a more active military security role in the US-Japan alliance. These included sending naval forces to the Indian Ocean in support of coalition forces fighting in Afghanistan, sending Self-Defense Forces to Iraq, participating in Theater Missile Defense with the US, etc. Under Prime Minister Fukuda the SDF has been withdrawn from Iraq, renewal of the anti-terrorism law for Indian Ocean support was suspended temporarily when the opposition Democratic Party (who now control the upper House) vehemently opposed it. The future of Japan's security policies seems in transition.
We see that any revision of Article 9 is now no longer a possibility in the near future, with Japan’s divided government, and a possibility of that continuing for the next several years unless the Democratic Party wins a majority in the next lower house election (possibly as early as this spring). We are also concerned about recent tensions over alleged crimes by U.S. servicemen in Japan and scandals and mistakes by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and their implications for the U.S. –Japan alliance. In many countries, a weak and divided government might use national security threats to mobilize support; but it may be that Japan is the opposite case. A weak and divided government might rather induce leaders of both parties to play instead to more wary, passive, and traditional postwar avoidance of controversy and commitment over defense just at the time the U.S. has come to expect more from Japan in the security arena.
China’s Global Role
China’s global importance is increasing dramatically, and already has some distinctive features. In Africa, for example, China’s rapidly increasing presence has distinctive economic and political features. Economically, China gives generous foreign aid that stresses old-style physical infrastructure spending, building dams, pipelines and highways. Politically, China stresses acceptance of the existing government’s authority, and shows a preference for working discreetly and behind-the-scenes in any attempt to alter a host government’s policies. Both these features replicate something of China’s domestic experience of investment-driven growth presided over by an authoritarian government. Consciously or unconsciously, China seeks to reproduce the policies and institutions with which it is familiar.
As a result, any consideration of China’s global role inevitably turns toward discussion of China’s domestic political and economic system as well. China stresses good governance and economic performance, as an alternative to a stress on democratization, and at least partly to justify maintaining the Communist Party in power. Yet there are trajectories that nudge China towards a more open, and even potentially democratic, future. In some respects, China seems to be moving toward a Singapore-like system, or limited democracy (at best), combined with an authoritative and capable bureaucracy. China’s East Asian neighbors seem relatively comfortable with China in this guise, but Western countries worry whether an authoritarian country can be a reliable partner and a peaceful stakeholder in the international system.
The year 2008 is shaping up to be a banner year. China’s hope that the Olympics would come off smoothly and without controversy have been frustrated already. There is already some evidence of a backlash of public defensiveness and resentment in China that might in turn encourage the government to crack down further on dissident groups and independent voices. But it is still conceivable that China will navigate through this difficult period and stage a successful Olympics. In that case, the rapid social and economic change that China experiences will contribute to further domestic opening and a more secure and confident global role.
Intellectual Property Rights
Regarding intellectual property (IP) rights, we observe efforts being made through various means to increase the security of IP rights and to promote the positive relationship between IP and the socio-economic development of a country. We see WIPO (the World Intellectual Property Organization) being encouraged to take a leading role in the discussion of IP issues, including those related to the North-South divide.
We expect that the Trilateral Co-operation (the European Patent Office, the Japan Patent Office, and the United States Patent and Trademark Office) will continue to make efforts to achieve harmonization of their rules and to collaborate with other major IP offices, including KIPO (the Korean Intellectual Property Office) and SIPO (the State Intellectual Property Office of China). Increased collaborations between IP offices is driven by the need for more efficient management of the growing number of applications being filed worldwide and pending examinations, such as the PPH (Patent Prosecution Highway) between the JPO and the USPTO. There will be continuing controversy, and divergent national practices, on the protection of IP versus considerations such as fair use of copyrighted material and the appropriateness of patenting for some forms of knowledge (such as business practice patents).
Corporate Governance and Social Responsibility
Corporate governance and corporate social responsibility are fairly new topics in many parts of the Pacific Rim region. We expect the next several years to be the critical period when dialogues at various levels are necessary to achieve a general consensus on the definitions and boundaries of corporate governance and corporate social responsibility. For example, how far ranging is the concept of corporate social responsibility? Does it include democracy building? Or is it limited to the idea of "doing no harm" such as not polluting or exploiting child labor? Does it include profit seeking activities if these are "beneficial" for larger social goals or does it mean only paying some profit costs to achieve other social goals? With a reasonable consensus on these issues, we would begin exploring what each actor can do to improve the corporate governance in the Pacific Rim.
Global Financial System
In the last 20 years, we have observed several financial crises and turmoil involving the Pacific Rim economies. Mexico and many other Latin American economies suffered from currency crises and banking crises in the 1990s. Many Asian countries suffered from the financial crises in 1998. Most recently, many economies have been feeling the financial shock that started from the trouble of subprime mortgages in the U.S. These financial crises highlighted increased linkage between the financial systems around the world and increased sophistication of financial products that intensifies and often obscures the global linkage.
We realize that regulating the financial system to avoid crises will become increasingly difficult as financial innovations continue. Thus, we propose that policy makers should focus more on speedy and less costly resolution of crises rather than prevention of those. We also propose that policy makers should pay more attention to the incentives of the actors. For example, the idea in the Basle II framework to quantify the risk assets using credit ratings and credit risk models is a good one, but the recent episodes in the U.S. suggests that rating service providers or financial institutions that build the credit risk models may not have strong incentives to measure risk accurately.
U.S. Immigration Policy
We observe that the current political debate is poisoning the environment, making reform of US immigration policy difficult. While the issue is immensely complicated, sensible reform would entail keeping the US open to immigration but redirecting immigration toward legal channels. The large scale of illegal immigration makes it easy for opponents of labor inflows to try to shut the doors to all immigration. Immigrants continue to bring vitality to the US economy and to US culture but widespread illegality has potentially negative consequences for civil society. Those opposed to illegal immigration tend to underplay the many benefits that immigrants bring to the US; those favoring open borders tend to dismiss concerns about how illegal immigration may undermine border security. The consequence of intransigence on both sides is that we have a dialog of the deaf.
To achieve sensible reform, the discussion has to be depoliticized to the extent possible. One way to do this would be to invoke a national convention on immigration reform (or perhaps endow a bipartisan congressional committee with the authority to produce a reform package that could be voted up or down but not amended) and put all issues on the table for discussion: border security, legalization, temporary immigration, family versus skilled immigration, fiscal effects of immigration, etc. Illegal immigration gets the most attention but other aspects of US immigration policy also need work. The US favors family ties over skills in granting green cards, without a clear reason for why this should be. Temporary immigration is set at arbitrary levels, without regard for the state of the US economy. And there is no mechanism to compensate border states, which often end up footing the bill for immigration, while the country as a whole gains. Unless all of these issues are open to consideration, meaningful reform of US immigration policy is unlikely to occur.
The following have endorsed these statements:
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Jesse Atkinson |
Peter Gourevitch |
Barry Naughton |
